Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id QAA10116 (8.6.9/5.3[ref pg@gmsl.co.uk] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk); Mon, 11 Feb 2002 16:05:19 GMT Date: Mon, 11 Feb 2002 10:59:12 -0500 Subject: Re: Words and memes Content-Type: text/plain; charset=US-ASCII; format=flowed From: Wade Smith <wade_smith@harvard.edu> To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit In-Reply-To: <5.1.0.14.0.20020208123256.03681bc0@pop.cogeco.ca> Message-Id: <4A9827F6-1F08-11D6-AA31-003065A0F24C@harvard.edu> X-Mailer: Apple Mail (2.480) Sender: fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk Precedence: bulk Reply-To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk
On Friday, February 8, 2002, at 03:20 , Keith Henson wrote:
> What I am looking for is predictive "urban dynamics" models for
> the development of ... wild social movements of the al-Qaeda
> type. We probably have enough historical data to set the
> coefficients. These would include wealth per capita,
> distribution of wealth, the rate of change of wealth per
> capita, and the number of later born children (See Born to
> Rebel by Solloway). I fear that such a model will predict
> disaster in Saudi Arabia, Israel and other places we don't know
> about. Tweaking the model inputs my show us how to prevent
> disaster.
Another instance of the Hari Seldon psychohistory mystique.
And yet another instance where the inclusion of memes is
non-parsimonious, as I've indicated from the ellipsis I inserted
above.
At any rate, it's more time for models of social success, within
modern diversity, than models of (always historically accurate)
disasters.
- Wade
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