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http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/jom-emit/2002/vol6/gatherer_d.html
The Spread of Irrational Behaviours by Contagion:
An Agent Micro-Simulation
Derek Gatherer
gatherer@biotech.ufl.org
Abstract
1 - Introduction
2 - Methods
3 - Results
3.1 - Simulation 1 - Highly contagious irrational behaviour in a highly susceptible population.
3.2 - Simulation 2 - Contagious irrational behaviour with poorer replication rates.
3.3 - Simulation 3 - Contagious irrational behaviour with possibility of loss of irrational behaviour.
3.4 - Simulation 4 - Making contagion dependent on the outcome of an event
3.5 - Simulation 5 - Introducing the `self-fulfilling prophecy'
3.6 - Simulation 6 - Introducing rational behaviour
3.7 - Simulation 7 - Giving agents the benefit of experience
3.8 - Simulation 8 - Removing successful pairs
3.9 - Simulation 9 - Removing successful pairs from a population with memory
3.10 - Simulation 10 - Introducing a communal cultural information pool influencing conversion decisions
3.11 - Simulation 11- Cultural information pool with replacement of successful pairs.
4 - Discussion
References
Acknowledgement
Abstract
A micro-simulation is described, for rational and
irrational strategies in human mating behaviour. The spread
of irrational behaviour through a population from a
single initial individual, the `contagionist paradigm', is
shown to be highly unlikely in most realistic circumstances.
An exception to this rule is shown to be where
the `self-fulfilling prophecy' phenomenon is exhibited, i.e.. the irrational meme affects the outcome of the mating. Additionally, where the irrational strategy, under
conditions of self-fulfilling prophecy, is allowed to co-exist with a rational strategy (i.e.. a strategy based on factual information), both can proceed to fixation,
resulting in a population of individuals exhibiting both rational and irrational memes simultaneously. However, where successful pairs are removed from the
population, there is a tendency for neither behaviour to persist. Maintenance of either behaviour in the population under circumstances of removal of successful
pairs requires a cultural information system, i.e.. one where a common pool of information may be accessed without a requirement for contagion. This implies that
contagionist explanations of culture may be strictly limited in their application. Some attempt is then made to generalise the conclusions to financial systems.
http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/jom-emit/2002/vol6/gatherer_d.html
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