Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id JAA20950 (8.6.9/5.3[ref pg@gmsl.co.uk] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk); Tue, 15 Jan 2002 09:16:59 GMT Message-Id: <5.1.0.14.0.20020115040801.02c41690@pop.cogeco.ca> X-Sender: hkhenson@pop.cogeco.ca X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1 Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2002 04:14:03 -0500 To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk From: Keith Henson <hkhenson@cogeco.ca> Subject: RE: CRASH CONTAGION In-Reply-To: <p04320405b86938d464d5@[192.168.2.3]> References: <5.1.0.14.0.20020114135944.02c3f0d0@pop.cogeco.ca> <5.1.0.14.0.20020114135944.02c3f0d0@pop.cogeco.ca> Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"; format=flowed Sender: fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk Precedence: bulk Reply-To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk
At 02:11 AM 15/01/02 -0500, you wrote:
>>Right. For a causal relation to be suspected the "caused" event must
>>happen later in time, and the alternative of both being caused by some
>>unknown event must be ruled out or at least considered unlikely. I
>>consider it possible but unlikely that the spike in suicides following
>>media reports has a common relation to some unknown event. Do you have a
>>different opinion?
>
>Black Friday. Ease of access to guns. "Disintegration of family
>values." Even in the whole "going postal" thing there was some
>discussion of the "corporate culture" of the USPS which lead to greater
>employee stress and unhappiness. The media reports confound the issue,
>because you don't know whether or not the suicides would have happened if
>it weren't reported. I don't think there is ever an instance where
>someone commits suicide only because of the media, there is usually other
>stuff going on in their life. And there are certainly forces which effect
>large populations, so they are happening in many people's lives
>simultaneously. This starts to sound like my history class: sufficient
>causes, final causes and contributing causes. It's rarely an
>all-or-nothing matter.
Certainly true. But these effects with the exception of an economic upset
are spread out in time, not concentrated. If I remember correctly the
suicide rate picks up a for a few weeks after a famous suicide and not at
other times. If this is the case, it would seem to me media influence is
causing, at least accelerating some of the suicides.
Keith Henson
===============================================================
This was distributed via the memetics list associated with the
Journal of Memetics - Evolutionary Models of Information Transmission
For information about the journal and the list (e.g. unsubscribing)
see: http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/jom-emit
This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Jan 15 2002 - 09:30:37 GMT