From: Alan Patrick (a.patrick@btinternet.com)
Date: Tue 27 Jul 2004 - 16:27:17 GMT
--- Scott Chase <osteopilus@yahoo.com> wrote:
> I've looked into these CRM's (Customer Relationship
> Management systems) a little. Looking at this site:
>
> http://www.darwinmag.com/read/120103/question65.html
>
> It looks like these systems hold some promise for
> targeted marketing and understanding customer
> behavior, but this article points to the events of
> 9-11 throwing a monkey wrench into the scheme.
> Sometimes the future differs significantly from the
> past. So forecasting might be good in the
> short-range
> but must be adjusted accordingly when new contexts
> arise.
I think this is so, tho' 9/111 was another of those
Mule events imho. Btw, have you read Malcolm
Gladwell's "Tipping Point" and the stuff in Si-Am
about scale-free networks - its pop science level, but
useful all the same.
<snip rest of stuff, basically agree>
> The typical customer thinks "Oh, that's nice, they
> gave me a discount card". I'm not sure how many
> people
> stop to ponder why they might be offered the card.
Very few imho.....hence why it works
> I can appreciate that this stuff might work, but
> aren't we talking about modest short-term
> predictions
> based on stable contexts (sans Mules)?
Yes, i think that is so...but I recall reading Asimov
25 years ago, and thus being aware of "psychohistory"
type research stuff then, and I know the tools are a
darn sight better today. Another 2000 years and where
may we be
;-)
Alan
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