From: derek gatherer (dgatherer2002@yahoo.co.uk)
Date: Fri 11 Apr 2003 - 07:55:05 GMT
--- Keith Henson <hkhenson@rogers.com> wrote: > At
12:50 PM 09/04/03 +0100,
> You can sure look at the fall in travel to Hong
> Kong. The airlines didn't
> reduce flights by 20% without justification. Or you
> could do surveys to
> see how many people are concerned.
Of course, but you'll need to go deeper than that if
you want to demonstrate a sigmoid curve. All that the
above would give you would be the current result of a
past complex process. As I said, the best you can say
is that there has been a contagion, and only then if
you can show the appropriate dynamics (which you
probably can't in this case, or in most cases). The
airlines cut flights after bookings had dropped, not
in anticipation.
> Airlines
> expect a certain number
> of passengers based on studies when they start a new
> route and expect the
> numbers to grow in a predictable manor as people
> become aware of the
> offering by this particular airline.
Is the predictable manner a sigmoid curve?
__________________________________________________
Yahoo! Plus
For a better Internet experience
http://www.yahoo.co.uk/btoffer
===============================================================
This was distributed via the memetics list associated with the
Journal of Memetics - Evolutionary Models of Information Transmission
For information about the journal and the list (e.g. unsubscribing)
see: http://www.cpm.mmu.ac.uk/jom-emit
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri 11 Apr 2003 - 08:05:18 GMT