Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id GAA21702 (8.6.9/5.3[ref pg@gmsl.co.uk] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk); Thu, 2 May 2002 06:12:10 +0100 Message-ID: <20020502050653.24325.qmail@web10106.mail.yahoo.com> Date: Wed, 1 May 2002 22:06:53 -0700 (PDT) From: Trupeljak Ozren <ozren_trupeljak@yahoo.com> Subject: Re: future language To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk In-Reply-To: <003901c1f12d$272764c0$5e2ffea9@oemcomputer> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Sender: fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk Precedence: bulk Reply-To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk
--- Philip Jonkers <philipjonkers@prodigy.net> wrote:
>
> Trying to know the future is like chasing ghosts. It's an illusion
> nonetheless
> that preoccupies whole tribes as it's so darn provitable. Other than
> the motion
> of celestial bodies nature is too complex (read `chaotic') to be
> subject
> to accurate future prediction beyond perhaps a couple of seconds.
>
> Phil.
>
I have to strongly disagree with you on that point. First, motion of
the celestial bodies is extremely complex and quite often chaotic (in
the mathematical sense). Second, we *do* have accurate predictions of
the future for much longer time then just a few seconds - in a huge
number of domains. As a trivial example, look at your TV guide - what
is it other than a book of predictions? As a less trivial example, what
is a scope on a rifle? A device for providing predictions on where the
bullet is likely to go. Completely non-trivial example: predicting the
medical needs of a certain population, costs for providing medical care
for that population, and devising strategies for making money on it
(health insurance companies routinely solve this problem). Do you see
what I am trying to point out to you? You live in a world that
completely *depends* on a huge number of very accurate predictions. The
interesting fact in this whole story is how blind most of us are to that....
=====
There are very few men - and they are exceptions - who are able to think and feel beyond the present moment.
Carl von Clausewitz
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