Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id KAA28652 (8.6.9/5.3[ref pg@gmsl.co.uk] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk); Mon, 25 Feb 2002 10:21:55 GMT Message-ID: <3C7A0F78.85B9F1E8@mmu.ac.uk> Date: Mon, 25 Feb 2002 10:18:32 +0000 From: Bruce Edmonds <b.edmonds@mmu.ac.uk> Organization: Centre for Policy Modelling X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.78 [en] (WinNT; U) X-Accept-Language: en To: JOM announcements list <jom-emit-ann@mmu.ac.uk> Subject: New JoM-EMIT paper: Gatherer - "The Spread of Irrational Behaviours by Contagion ..." Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Sender: fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk Precedence: bulk Reply-To: JOM-EMIT@sepa.tudelft.nl
The Spread of Irrational Behaviours by Contagion:
An Agent Micro-Simulation
by Derek Gatherer
Abstract
A micro-simulation is described, for rational and irrational
strategies in human mating behaviour. The spread of
irrational behaviour through a population from a single
initial individual, the `contagionist paradigm', is shown to
be highly unlikely in most realistic circumstances. An
exception to this rule is shown to be where the
`self-fulfilling prophecy' phenomenon is exhibited, i.e.. the
irrational meme affects the outcome of the mating.
Additionally, where the irrational strategy, under conditions
of self-fulfilling prophecy, is allowed to co-exist with a
rational strategy (i.e.. a strategy based on factual
information), both can proceed to fixation, resulting in a
population of individuals exhibiting both rational and
irrational memes simultaneously. However, where
successful pairs are removed from the population, there is
a tendency for neither behaviour to persist. Maintenance of
either behaviour in the population under circumstances of
removal of successful pairs requires a cultural information
system, i.e.. one where a common pool of information
may be accessed without a requirement for contagion. This
implies that contagionist explanations of culture may be
strictly limited in their application. Some attempt is then
made to generalise the conclusions to financial systems.
Available at:
http://jom-emit.cfpm.org/2002/vol6/gatherer_d.html
Contents
Abstract
1 - Introduction
2 - Methods
3 - Results
3.1 - Simulation 1 - Highly contagious irrational behaviour
in a highly susceptible population.
3.2 - Simulation 2 - Contagious irrational behaviour with
poorer replication rates.
3.3 - Simulation 3 - Contagious irrational behaviour with
possibility of loss of irrational behaviour.
3.4 - Simulation 4 - Making contagion dependent on the
outcome of an event
3.5 - Simulation 5 - Introducing the `self-fulfilling
prophecy'
3.6 - Simulation 6 - Introducing rational behaviour
3.7 - Simulation 7 - Giving agents the benefit of experience
3.8 - Simulation 8 - Removing successful pairs
3.9 - Simulation 9 - Removing successful pairs from a
population with memory
3.10 - Simulation 10 - Introducing a communal cultural
information pool influencing conversion decisions
3.11 - Simulation 11- Cultural information pool with
replacement of successful pairs.
4 - Discussion
References
Acknowledgement
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