Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id SAA14273 (8.6.9/5.3[ref pg@gmsl.co.uk] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk); Fri, 18 Feb 2000 18:55:55 GMT X-Authentication-Warning: maigret.umd.edu: debivort owned process doing -bs Date: Fri, 18 Feb 2000 13:54:42 -0500 (EST) From: "Lawrence H. de Bivort" <debivort@umd5.umd.edu> X-Sender: debivort@maigret.umd.edu To: "'memetics@mmu.ac.uk'" <memetics@mmu.ac.uk> Subject: RE: meaning in memetics In-Reply-To: <B6E47FBD3879D31192AD009027AC929C3687FE@NWTH-EXCHANGE> Message-ID: <Pine.OSF.4.21.0002181346540.1519-100000@maigret.umd.edu> Content-Type: TEXT/PLAIN; charset=US-ASCII Sender: fmb-majordomo@mmu.ac.uk Precedence: bulk Reply-To: memetics@mmu.ac.uk
On Fri, 18 Feb 2000, Bruce Jones wrote:
> You can not control or predict the actions of a single human, but
>en-mass, man is highly predictable ...IF you understand the process of
>thought evolution. If this is mastered or at least only partially
>understood we will be a long way along the road to understanding humans.
The individual human being may not be as "unpredictable" as it is often
assumed. It may be no more than a matter of the accuracy and level of
detail of the models we use to 'model' individual. My sense is that we are
as close to accurately predicting individual behavior as we are mass
behavior. In the end, I think, we will find it easier to predict the
individual with true accuracy than mass behavior, which seems doomed to
statistical analysis of probabilities.
> We may even develop a Harry Selton mentality!
Hmmmm...perhaps Seltonian thinking is already prevalent. It would be
interesting to explore just how close we are to a Seltonian
view. 'He" depended on a statistical approach, if I recall rightly, and
one of the themes was his inability to predict the emergence of a truly
unique actor that would throw off the statistical mass prediction.
Lawrence de Bivort
The Memetic Group
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