Sociology and Simulation:
- Statistical and Qualitative Cross-Validation
CPM Report No.: 03-105
By: Scott Moss and
Bruce Edmonds
Date: 12th Jan 2003.
Published as:
Moss, S. and Edmonds, B. (2005) Sociology and Simulation: - Statistical and
Qualitative Cross-Validation, American Journal of Sociology, 110(4).
Abstract
The observance of unpredictable episodes of clustered volatility in
some data
series has led to the development of models of social processes that
will
give rise to such clustered volatility. Such models are not,
however,
validated directly against qualitative evidence about the behaviour of
individuals
and how they interact. An agent based simulation model of the
effect
of drought on domestic water consumption is reported here that is the
outcome
of a process of development involving stakeholders to inform and
validate
the model qualitatively at micro level while ensuring that numerical
outputs
from the model cohere with observed time series data. We argue
that
this cross-validation of agent based social simulation models is a
significant
advancement in the analysis of social process.
Accessible as: