Discussion papers

CPM-CPM-21-217 - 31 August 2021

New CfPM report: Open, Contingent, Adaptive and Reactive Resilience – using ABM and other tools to facilitate our collective survival in an uncertain world

by Bruce Edmonds and Vahid Yazdanpanah. A paper accepted for Social Simulation 2021

Abstract. This work puts forward a particular perspective on achieving resilience in the face of deep uncertainty due to complex systems. In principle, various ways of lacking knowledge about the behaviour of the enveloping system and its agents, can make traditional planning approaches ineffective. This calls for resilient strategies that can adapt to achieve their goals, or simply survive, in view of unexpected shocks. We distinguish different types of situations in which different strategies might be helpful and propose requirements for a new strategy suitable for deep uncertainty, what we call Open, Contingent, Adaptive and Reactive Resilience (OCARR).

Keywords: policy making, disaster avoidance, adaptation, deep uncertainty, ABM, visualisation, monitoring, risk, adaptative governance, resilience