Received: by alpheratz.cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk id XAA07626 (8.6.9/5.3[ref email@example.com] for cpm.aca.mmu.ac.uk from firstname.lastname@example.org); Sat, 19 Jan 2002 23:14:09 GMT X-Originating-IP: [126.96.36.199] From: "Grant Callaghan" <email@example.com> To: firstname.lastname@example.org Subject: RE: Why memeoids? Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 15:09:48 -0800 Content-Type: text/plain; format=flowed Message-ID: <LAW2-F72AJMaSIAtyUC000061df@hotmail.com> X-OriginalArrivalTime: 19 Jan 2002 23:09:48.0858 (UTC) FILETIME=[6475F1A0:01C1A13E] Sender: email@example.com Precedence: bulk Reply-To: firstname.lastname@example.org
>>At 01:35 AM 19/01/02 -0500, "Scott Chase" <email@example.com>
>>>>From: Keith Henson <firstname.lastname@example.org>
>>>>I have speculated for years about how likely Turkey is to get into the
>>>>of mess Iran went into.
>>Sorry, words left out. I have speculated for years about how memetics
>>could analyze and predict how likely Turkey is . . . .
>>>Does Turkey have that much potential for instability? Is there a cauldron
>>>of fundamendalism bubbling within poised to overthrow the gov't there?
>>They have a reservoir of discontented Islamic fundamentalists. I have not
>>looked at the situation in detail, but I think it is clear that most
>>Islamic countries have some. The question is what does it take for
>>memes/groups to become a problem?
>>>I was hoping Turkey might represent the prototype for the modern state
>>>separated from the mosque), which just happens to have a predominately
>>>Muslim population. There's even a smidgen of what we call democracy there
>>>too, isn't there? That's not quite what Iran had under the shah, previous
>>>to their revolution.
>>It would be most interesting to study the indicators in the population
>>leading up to a coup. As candidates, I would put forth wealth per capita
>>and maybe more important rate of change of wealth. Other candidate
>>would be culture being displaced, percentage of later born children,
>>percentage of young men in bonded (or any) sexual relations. Subject to
>>real measurement, my expectation is that falling wealth per capita, more
>>later born children, and high percentage of males without sex partners
>>would all contribute to instability. Another possible factor might be the
>>extent to which wealth is stratified. There may be other factors as
>>important or even more so.
>>Turkey may have escaped some of the factors contributing to instability by
>>exporting a substantial fraction of its population of young people to
>>>From what I gather Turkey's not without its warts, especially considering
>>>controversies over the Kurds.
>>That is certainly true. Turkey has a unique history in that one of its
>>most forceful leaders, Atatürk, yanked Turkey into the modern age between
>>about 1925 and 1935. http://www.wikipedia.com/wiki/History_of_Turkey
>Thank you for posting this informative URL. From reading some other
>I've found that maybe you're right about Turkey possibly going the way of
>revolutionary Iran as Turkey *could* be an election (2004?) away from an
>Islamist gov't, if memory serves correct.
>One of the discomforting aspects of Turkey, from what little I know, is the
>military's intervention into gov't affairs. There may be a slight parallel
>here with the present situation in Pakistan, where our buddy Musharraf
>became leader via military coup. Aren't things supposed to come to a head
>this year (2002) as far as Musharraf's position is concerned?
It's been my understanding (based on reading the news, etc.) that Turkey has
been constantly at war with Greeks over Cyprus and with Kurds over their
desire for a homeland carved out of a bit of Turkey, a bit of Iraq and a bit
if Iran. So insurrection has been a daily occurance in Turkish controlled
Cyprus and in every part of Turkey where Kurds reside. The Kurds have even
rebelled in the prisons where they are held. So, if the reports are
correct, Turkey already has a lot of instability in insurrection.
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