RE: Why memeoids?

From: Keith Henson (
Date: Sat Jan 19 2002 - 09:35:15 GMT

  • Next message: Ray Recchia: "Re: Sensory and sensibility"

    Received: by id JAA06096 (8.6.9/5.3[ref] for from; Sat, 19 Jan 2002 09:37:53 GMT
    Message-Id: <>
    X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 5.1
    Date: Sat, 19 Jan 2002 04:35:15 -0500
    From: Keith Henson <>
    Subject: RE: Why memeoids?
    In-Reply-To: <>
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"; format=flowed
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
    Precedence: bulk

    At 01:35 AM 19/01/02 -0500, "Scott Chase" <>

    >>From: Keith Henson <>


    >>I have speculated for years about how likely Turkey is to get into the kind
    >>of mess Iran went into.

    Sorry, words left out. I have speculated for years about how memetics
    could analyze and predict how likely Turkey is . . . .

    >Does Turkey have that much potential for instability? Is there a cauldron
    >of fundamendalism bubbling within poised to overthrow the gov't there?

    They have a reservoir of discontented Islamic fundamentalists. I have not
    looked at the situation in detail, but I think it is clear that most
    Islamic countries have some. The question is what does it take for
    memes/groups to become a problem?

    >I was hoping Turkey might represent the prototype for the modern state (as
    >separated from the mosque), which just happens to have a predominately
    >Muslim population. There's even a smidgen of what we call democracy there
    >too, isn't there? That's not quite what Iran had under the shah, previous
    >to their revolution.

    It would be most interesting to study the indicators in the population
    leading up to a coup. As candidates, I would put forth wealth per capita
    and maybe more important rate of change of wealth. Other candidate factors
    would be culture being displaced, percentage of later born children,
    percentage of young men in bonded (or any) sexual relations. Subject to
    real measurement, my expectation is that falling wealth per capita, more
    later born children, and high percentage of males without sex partners
    would all contribute to instability. Another possible factor might be the
    extent to which wealth is stratified. There may be other factors as
    important or even more so.

    Turkey may have escaped some of the factors contributing to instability by
    exporting a substantial fraction of its population of young people to Germany.

    > From what I gather Turkey's not without its warts, especially considering
    > controversies over the Kurds.

    That is certainly true. Turkey has a unique history in that one of its
    most forceful leaders, Atatürk, yanked Turkey into the modern age between
    about 1925 and 1935.

    ===============================This was distributed via the memetics list associated with the
    Journal of Memetics - Evolutionary Models of Information Transmission
    For information about the journal and the list (e.g. unsubscribing)

    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Jan 19 2002 - 10:16:53 GMT