From: Keith Henson (
Date: Tue Jan 08 2002 - 01:05:33 GMT

  • Next message: Wade T. Smith: "RE: CRASH CONTAGION"

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    At 01:40 AM 08/01/02 +0100, you wrote:

    > > What is more troubling is the lack of ability, apparently, of other
    > > people to see this sort of troublingness, or to ignore it, or even
    > > condone it.
    >What shall people do? Ask all outsiders whether they plan to crash
    >a plane in the near future? Or just lock all of them away in
    >asylums? That's a good idea isn't it?

    To some extent there isn't anything that can be done except to expect the

    One of the consequences of large populations is that really unlikely events
    are just going to happen. For example the tail beyond six standard
    deviation is (if I remember my stats right) one in a million. For a lot of
    purposed it can be ignored, but when you are reading news about a billion
    people, you can expect 1000 of one in a million events.

    If you want to actually reduce these low probability events, then getting
    people integrated into a tribal structure may be the best
    approach. Alienated young men have always been a problem.

    Keith Henson

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