WorldWatch Institute :- Worldstability

From: Kenneth Van Oost (
Date: Wed 16 Feb 2005 - 19:21:23 GMT

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    Keith and All, Glad to be back. Can the following be of interest for the discussion at work !?

    Peace, says the Worldwatch Institute can 't be forced upon us by the military. Other (f)actors than buying weapons are more dominant in the creation of a peaceful climate, yet we spend about 1 billion dollar each year on weapons.

    Conflictprevention, so underwrites the Institute, is often the last straw we can catch before millions will die, despite the fact that the fundamental and deter- minant indicators for a total disaster were due. But which clues give ' realm ', are fixed, rule in cases like these !?


    In the beginning of the ' 90 the CIA set the STATE FAILURE TASK FORCE off the ground, which was bound to investigate why some countries above others were due for violence and in the end for (civil)war. The members of this group compared many kinds of data and find out, more to their surprise, that infant mortality was one of the best catalysts; more decisive than a slender democratation or a closed trade- system. The reason for this, is that a high infant mortality number pre- supposes often more widely spread problems and other shortcomings like a bad healthcare system, lousy education and a struggeling economy.

    Another conclusion was drawn from Population Action International. Investigators of this organisation found out that within countries where 40% of the population is younger than 29, the chances of war is 2,5 times greater than within those with a more stable population pyramid. The reason so they claim is simple.

    No government can provide the number of jobs needed for such a hard group, not even if the economyunfolds enormous effects. In the early days it was presumed that the growing number of poor, unem- ployed youngsters was the best catalyst for setting into more trouble, but new evidence shows that the risks also increase if a high unemployment rate is found within the youngsters of the elite. If those suppose what they get isn 't enough to what they are entitled to, or live in a lesser high prosperity than they should, than it holds for a good deal why extremists and violent movements turn to war.

    Another investigation done by the same PAI, shows that urbanization continues to retain a part of the puzzle. If the urban expansion augmounts with more than 4% each year, than the risks for an open conflict doubles.

    So, worldstability is more a question of development than it is one of weapons.

    Kenneth Van Oost ( translation) February 2005 Brussels, De Morgen, by C. Vuylsteke

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