Re: psychohistory

From: Alan Patrick (
Date: Tue 27 Jul 2004 - 16:27:17 GMT

  • Next message: Scott Chase: "Re: testing 1,2,3.."

    --- Scott Chase <> wrote:

    > I've looked into these CRM's (Customer Relationship
    > Management systems) a little. Looking at this site:
    > It looks like these systems hold some promise for
    > targeted marketing and understanding customer
    > behavior, but this article points to the events of
    > 9-11 throwing a monkey wrench into the scheme.
    > Sometimes the future differs significantly from the
    > past. So forecasting might be good in the
    > short-range
    > but must be adjusted accordingly when new contexts
    > arise.

    I think this is so, tho' 9/111 was another of those Mule events imho. Btw, have you read Malcolm Gladwell's "Tipping Point" and the stuff in Si-Am about scale-free networks - its pop science level, but useful all the same.

    <snip rest of stuff, basically agree>

    > The typical customer thinks "Oh, that's nice, they
    > gave me a discount card". I'm not sure how many
    > people
    > stop to ponder why they might be offered the card.

    Very few imho.....hence why it works

    > I can appreciate that this stuff might work, but
    > aren't we talking about modest short-term
    > predictions
    > based on stable contexts (sans Mules)?

    Yes, i think that is so...but I recall reading Asimov 25 years ago, and thus being aware of "psychohistory" type research stuff then, and I know the tools are a darn sight better today. Another 2000 years and where may we be



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