From: derek gatherer (
Date: Fri 11 Apr 2003 - 07:55:05 GMT

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     --- Keith Henson <> wrote: > At 12:50 PM 09/04/03 +0100,

    > You can sure look at the fall in travel to Hong
    > Kong. The airlines didn't
    > reduce flights by 20% without justification. Or you
    > could do surveys to
    > see how many people are concerned.

    Of course, but you'll need to go deeper than that if you want to demonstrate a sigmoid curve. All that the above would give you would be the current result of a past complex process. As I said, the best you can say is that there has been a contagion, and only then if you can show the appropriate dynamics (which you probably can't in this case, or in most cases). The airlines cut flights after bookings had dropped, not in anticipation.

    > Airlines
    > expect a certain number
    > of passengers based on studies when they start a new
    > route and expect the
    > numbers to grow in a predictable manor as people
    > become aware of the
    > offering by this particular airline.

    Is the predictable manner a sigmoid curve?

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