Re: future language

From: Philip Jonkers (
Date: Fri May 10 2002 - 22:02:16 BST

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    Subject: Re: future language
    Date: Fri, 10 May 2002 14:02:16 -0700
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    > The mathematical error is a neglect of the importance of error-covariance.
    > is explained on my homepage, (all too inadequately, sad to say), with a
    > stock-market prediction example (roughly, don't hire the triplets to
    > the market, they won't correct each other's mistakes but will reinforce
    > and also then mistakenly believe their consensus bodes well for accuracy),
    > instead hire three very different people to do it, so they are only likely
    > agree when all three are right about something. On my home page I take
    > more words to say this, and have only an artificial example, but there is
    > telling little table, so it's better than nothing. If tolerant but
    > try visiting it at www.SocialTechnology.Org/dpwilson.html.

    Error-covariance, interesting... indeed it all adds up.

    If you define the term rational as being a well-thought through kind of
    process which takes all possible options into consideration, then a diverse
    team of decision-making people is not only desirable but often essential.
    Hence a rational board means that it has to consist of a group of people
    with diverse opinions, mind-sets etc. OTOH, if you have a bunch a people
    who all roughly share the same opinions, ideas, idealogy etc. it is likely
    that they
    fail to take all options into consideration prior to the act of
    Then such narrow-minded decision-making boards
    are irrational by definition. Hence, fascism being based on such political
    is intrinsically irrational. A fact we all already knew intuitively (at
    least) of course.

    Thanks Douglas,


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