Re: Two financial thought contagion papers now online

Date: Mon Feb 25 2002 - 02:18:44 GMT

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    Subject: Re: Two financial thought contagion papers now online
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    In a message dated 2/22/2002 6:33:55 PM Central Standard Time, Grant
    Callaghan <> writes:

    > I remember that even the authoritarian advice of Alan Greenspan about
    > "irrational exuberance" was laughed at not long before the bubble burst.
    > Someone even wrote a book making fun of his catch phrase. A few months
    > later, it wasnt' funny anymore. But logic says the stock market only does
    > two things: it goes up and it goes down -- sequentially. It's a
    > self-correcting mechanism that always over-corrects before it stabilizes.
    > The past history of the market demonstrates this trend over and over
    > the past hundred years. But irrational exuberance is stronger than data
    > that hope that beats eternal within the human breast takes on religious
    > overtones of belief in the ponzi scheme of an over-subscribed market. The
    > most common term for it is "The Greater Fool" theory. This implies that
    > can always find a greater fool to sell inflated stocks to. Sounds a lot
    > alike the mantra of the lottery ticket buyer: "You can't win if you don't
    > buy a ticket."
    > Grant

    Hi Grant.

    Actually, the book Irrational Exuberance is a serious and very well
    done book, not meant as a joke. I think that some media people may
    have joked about it, though. It has a chapter on contagions, too.
    Also, Alan Greenspan started referring to "the contagion effect"
    in reference to the Asian economic crisis in 1997.

    --Aaron Lynch

    Shiller, R. (2000) Irrational Exuberance. Princeton:
    Princeton University Press.

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