Two financial thought contagion papers now online

Date: Fri Feb 22 2002 - 09:37:52 GMT

  • Next message: Grant Callaghan: "Re: Two financial thought contagion papers now online"

    Received: by id JAA20003 (8.6.9/5.3[ref] for from; Fri, 22 Feb 2002 09:43:30 GMT
    From: <>
    Message-ID: <>
    Date: Fri, 22 Feb 2002 04:37:52 EST
    Subject: Two financial thought contagion papers now online
    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
    X-Mailer: AOL 4.0 for Windows 95 sub 113
    Precedence: bulk

    Yesterday, I placed two financial thought contagion papers
    online. They are:

    "Thought Contagions In the Stock Market" was published in
    the Journal of Psychology and Financial Markets Volume 1,
    number 1, on March 24, 2000. (Also presented in a 1999
    conference.) Its URL is

    Thought Contagions in the Stock Market

    Aaron Lynch

    The evolutionary epidemiology of ideas, or thought contagion
    theory, is introduced and applied to possible examples in the
    stock market. It is suggested that differences in transmissivity,
    receptivity, and longevity of belief may contribute numerous
    irrational influences on the stock market, generating sources of
    inefficiency. These include a wide variety of mechanisms that
    may generate both positive and negative market overreactions.
    The soaring prices of Internet stocks during 1998-1999 are used
    as an example of how investment ideas correlating with new
    communication behaviors may affect share prices, and how
    contagion effects in general can affect the broader market. New
    avenues of empirical investigation are proposed to test the types
    of hypotheses presented.

    A separate academic article that expands on the first and discusses
    some applications in general terms is published as "Thought contagion
    in the stock markets: A general framework and focus on the Internet
    bubble," in Derivatives Use, Trading and Regulation 6:4, p. 338-362
    The online version is available at

    Thought Contagion in the Stock Markets: A General Framework
    and Focus on the Internet Bubble

    Aaron Lynch

    The possibility that ideas have self-spreading aspects contributing to
    market movements is introduced, and set within a broader framework
    of the evolutionary epidemiology of ideas. A broad range of contagion
    factors are discussed, and explained in terms of transmissivity,
     receptivity, and longevity of beliefs. These factors are hypothesised
    as contributing to the prevalence of a great diversity of mass beliefs
    that can affect share prices. Distinctions are drawn between
    truth-contingent and non-truth-contingent transmission mechanisms,
    and the emergence of multi-refutation-resistant strains of belief is
    considered as a challenge to effective decision-making. All of
    these principles are applied to the 1998 to early 2000 Internet stocks
    bubble as an extended case study.

    --Aaron Lynch

    This was distributed via the memetics list associated with the
    Journal of Memetics - Evolutionary Models of Information Transmission
    For information about the journal and the list (e.g. unsubscribing)

    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Feb 22 2002 - 09:53:21 GMT