5 An Application

5.2. The four-CDAP-state model

The simulated and real market shares generated by the four-state model are reported in the three figures 6 - 8. The preferences of each CDAP state are reported in Table 2. The CDAP-state accounting for the largest proportion of sales is state 1 which, as indicated in Table 2, is extremely concerned with the fashionableness of their purchase combined with some, rather more moderate, concern for specialness and distinctive ingredients. State 2 also wants its drink to be fashionable but is much less concerned with that characteristic and more concerned with cost and size (it wants the smallest sizes). In addition, State 2 has a moderately strong and well defined aversion to brands which appear to be imported. State 3 is much the same as State 2 in its preferences for cheap, small and rather special brands. The difference between States 2 and 3 is that, while both attach some importance to fashionableness, State 2 is intolerant of deviations from the most fashionable while State 3 is intolerant of deviations from the least fashionable. State 4, which is the second most important of the four CDAP states, is the least concerned with price but the most concerned with expensiveness. It is also just about equally concerned with fashionableness as State 1 but is intolerant of extremes in either direction. Size is much more important to State 4 than it is to State 1 and it wants the largest sizes.

In general terms, States 1 and 4, accounting for 70 per cent of the market between them, are up-market while States 2 and 3 are down-market.

Figure 6: Real and Simulated Shares Brand A (larger)

Figure 7: Real and Simulated Shares Brand A (smaller)

Figure 8: Real and Simulated Shares Brand B (larger)

Artificially Intelligent Specification and Analysis of Context-Dependent Attribute Preferences - 03 NOV 97

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