Limburg Basin Model Requirements Specification
Development of modelling technology and methodology
The purpose is to combine integrated assessment modelling
approaches and agent based social simulation to build a new generation of
integrated assessment models that enable to investigate the environmental and
socio-economic consequences resulting from the actions of agents.
Assessment of the advantages, limitations and disadvantages of
the combination of agent based modelling and integrated assessment.
Involving stakeholders in the process of agent based
modelling. Stakeholder participation is necessary to identify behavioural rules
and goals of the involved actors on the one hand, to validate the model and to
identify the needs and interests of the future model users.
Evaluation of theoretical constructs, in particular the
application of cultural theory to identify actors as hierarchist, egalitarian
or individualist. The virtue of this method is that changing characteristics of
actors, for example their goals and strategies, can be incorporated into the
model in a consistent way. The benefits of the use of cultural theory (or its
implications) are to be assessed in terms of the effects on the simplicity of
model design, execution efficiency (speed and/or memory use) and the value of
the model and the model results for policy makers.
Describing the evolution of the goal structure of the
Maaswerken project from 1990 to 2000 and to analyse how this structure changed
under the influence of stakeholders (including governmental institutions). The
behaviour and the influence of stakeholders themselves may have changed over
time due to their mutual interaction, the extreme events of 1993 and 1995 and
changes in the socio-economic and environmental boundary conditions.
To assess the advantages and disadvantages of the bringing
together of the widest possible set of stakeholders as well as the integration
of the individual projects ( Grensmaas and Zandmaas) around 1997.
The integrated analysis of the consequences of consistent
patterns of environmental change (e.g. climate change) and economic development
in relation to the Maaswerken project and other provincial and national water
Building upon the retrospective analysis, the forecast of
possible outcomes (i.e. the final goal structure) of the Maaswerken project and
their implications for the future state of the Meuse and the related river
Model users’ objectives
The users of the models and the outputs from the models will
in principle be the Maaswerken organisation, the provincial government and
academics. Other stakeholders will quite probably be interested, but the
Maaswerken organisation has to give permission for the model results to be
distributed to other parties.
Maaswerken project management
Planning and policy evaluation tool through scenario analysis.
Political and public relations tool: justification of scale
and scope and the integrated nature of the Maaswerken project.
Communication tool to support the requirements of the project
managers to engage policy makers and engineers in a common dialogue.
Province of Limburg
of policy options associated to the Maaswerken project: e.g., drinking water
supply (shift from ground to surface water), decreasing pollution (for example
from agriculture) and area planning. Here, area planning is about, for example,
the location of new housing in the winter bed or the acquisition of farmland
for nature reserves in order to increase the retention of the land.
The model might be used to evaluate the usefulness of
cultural theory as mentioned in 1.1.5.
Mode of model use
The ICIS team will operate the models on behalf of the
stakeholder-users during workshop sessions for which fast scenario generation
will be required. A more detailed post-workshop analysis of those scenarios, at
finer grain, to support or undermine the workshop conclusions might be
performed afterwards, with smaller time constraints.
The use of models to assess the theoretical issues such as the
usefulness of cultural theory requires some facility to change between a single
agent structure and a structure in which agents are ordered along their “cultural
The use of models to support interdisciplinary and
multi-centre research requires the facility to quickly change agent
specifications without having to undertake significant changes in the
implementation of other aspects of the models.