Evidence-based social simulation of conflict

Centre for Policy Modelling

Armando Geller

I am a research fellow at the Centre for Policy Modelling with a doctoral degree in conflict analysis and social simulation. I am particularly interested in evidence-based multi-agent social simulation of contemporary conflict, currently in particular Afghanistan. My research also includes the fields of guerrilla warfare, strategic studies and terrorism studies.

Phone:       +44 (0)161 247 6073

Fax:           +44 (0)161 247 6802

E-mail:      armando[at]cfpm[dot]org

Contemporary conflicts constitute social systems sui generis in which neo-patrimonially behaving actors pursue their manifold interests in an anomic context, frequently with violent means. This results in the emergence of competing opportunistic solidarity networks the interactions and structures of which entail characteristics attributable to complexity theory.

Evidence–driven social simulation enables the researcher to analyse dynamic social ontologies. It affords the inclusion of qualitative data – reliable quantitative data is scarce in contemporary conflicts – allows for a systemic approach to conflict analysis, and generates output data which can be quantitatively and qualitatively cross-validated against its target system, as well as studied with quantitative data analysis and social network analysis techniques.

A roundabout in conflict-torn Herat, Afghanistan (Photo: Armando Geller)

I currently run for becoming a member in the ESSA Management Committee. For more information see the official Management Committee election website.